a VMA Trial for Ciber (CBR)
Date
Shares Bought (Sold)
@ Price
Dollar Value
Current Shares Held
Monies Invested
  Nov 25/98  
500
21 3/4
$10,875
500
$10,875
  Dec 1/98  
500
21
$10,500
1000
$21,375
  Dec 15/98  
500
21
$10,500
1500
$31,875
  Mar 9/99  
500
18 1/2
$9,250
2000
$41,125
  Jun 18/99  
1000
16 7/8
$16,875
3000
$58,000
  Jul 13/99  
1000
15 1/4
$15,250
4000
$73,250
  Nov 10/99  
(1000)
19 1/4
$19,250
3000
$54,000
  Nov 11/99  
(1000)
20 1/2
$20,500
2000
$32,500
  Nov 12/99  
(1000)
22 3/4
$22,750
1000
$9,750
  Dec 9/99  
(500)
26 1/2
$13,250
500
($3500)
  Jun 2/00  
(500)
17 1/2
$8,750
0
($12,250)
June 2/00 : Annualized Return = 24%

VMA Trial has ended ...


Volume-weighted Moving Average for CBR

We started our* portfolio on Nov 25/98, purchasing 500 shares of CBR

at $21 3/4. (Yippeee! It closed at $22 3/16)
* Uh ... it's actually my wife's money; I'd NEVER try this on MY money!!!

The situation, as of Nov 25/98

Note that VMA indicates a BUY.
You can ignore the "Gain" figures; they're what the VMA Gain would have been had I started in Feb/98 with equal dollar amounts in Cash and Stock, then followed the VMA signals (which compare the 5-day Moving Average with the 200-day VMA), buying with 50% of my cash at every buy signal and selling 50% of my stock at every sell signal.
Here's the Stock Price and the history of VMA buy and sell prices

When the Stock Price falls below the green line that means the stock is cheeep; the 5-day Moving Average is 25% less than the 200-day Volume-weighted Moving Average and that's a VMA-BUY.
Here's how the 5-day Moving Average compared with the 200-day VMA, since Feb/98

along with the 25% buy and sell criteria.
The 25% figures (and other parameters) were chosen by playing with the spreadsheet, noted below ... somewhere ...
Finally, here's what happened over the past two years, in particular the volume of trades which (along with the daily prices) determines the VMA
The vertical red line indicates where the earlier plots (above) started

This also indicates why the stock, CBR, was chosen.
Volatile (so we can play the swings), with good long term prospects, having been ranked by Forbes magazine as one of the top companies in its field and with historical earnings increases of over 30%/year and because small-caps have been hammered recently (tho' CBR ain't THAT small) - see small caps and note that it's been the worsest period since that ol '87 crash - and etc. *.

* VMA sez when to trade
but first we gotta identify the stock!
See CIBER stuff

  • Don't try VMA at home
  • If anyone does - and loses money - I'll deny everything
  • If anyone does - and makes money - I'll take a small percentage
Here's a spreadsheet and an explanation of VMA.