Some thoughts on the Efficient Market Hypothesis:
Norstad probably explains it best, namely:
The Efficient Market Hypothesis states that modern financial markets are "efficient."
This means that they quickly react so that prices reflect all available information ...
Prices of individual securities, market sectors and style segments, and entire stock and
bond markets are therefore always "correct" in the sense that they always reflect the
collective beliefs of all investors taken together as a whole about their future prospects ...
One major consequence of the EMH is that unless an investor is just plain lucky, it is
impossible to exploit the market to make an abnormal profit by using any information that
the market already knows. Another consequence is that for someone without any such private
information, it does not make any sense to talk about "undervalued" or "overvalued" individual
securities, sectors, styles, or markets.
Now consider the following scenario.