Your Portfolio after N years and N Investments
B = Starting Portfolio
P = Annual Investment (at the end of each year ... increasing with inflation)
R = Annual Return on Investments
I = Annual Rate of Inflation
x = 1 + R
y = 1 + I
z = x/y
then your Portfolio, after N years and N investments, is:
(1)  
BxN + Py(xN - yN)/(x - y)
   
or    
BxN + PyN+1
(zN - 1)/(z - 1)
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- If you start investing IMMEDIATELY (instead of waiting till the
end of the first year), then just replace P by P/y
in the above formulas.
- If you WITHDRAW P at the BEGINNING of each year
(like, when you retire ... and this withdrawal increases with inflation), and you start with a Portfolio worth
$B, then the balance in your Portfolio (after N years and
N withdrawals) is
obtained by replacing P by P/y (so the withdrawals
start IMMEDIATELY )
and P by -P (that means your investment is
really a WITHDRAWAL). You then get the formula:
Your Portfolio after N years and N Withdrawals
(2)  
BxN - P(xN - yN)/(x - y)
   
or    
BxN - PyN
(zN - 1)/(z - 1)
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- If you want to know how long your Portfolio will last,
set the above Portfolio balance, (2), to zero and determine the number of years,
N, like so:
How Many Years till your Portfolio is ZERO?
(3)  
N = -log(1 - (B/P)(z - 1)) / log(z)
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where log is a logarithm (to any convenient base).
What about TAXES?
- If you're building your Portfolio within a Registered Retirement
Savings Plan (RRSP), you get a tax break ... you get a tax refund for
the money you invested.
- If your tax rate is T (for a 43% tax rate, you put T = .43),
you get a tax refund of QT for an
investment of Q so it only costs you
P = Q - QT = Q(1 - T).
Hence, if you put up $P, your annual investment is
$Q = P/(1-T).
- To see the effect on your Portfolio, just replace
P by P/(1 - T), in the formula (1), above
(where now P refers to how much of your money you
invest, each year).
- If your Portfolio is outside an RRSP you pay taxes on the gains (when you sell something and actually do
make a gain ... that is, you crystalize your gains).
Suppose the tax rate on these gains is t (which depends upon the
type of gain: interest, dividends or capital gains).
Then, when a Portfolio worth $A increases to A(1+R),
a crystalized gain of AR gets reduced, via taxes,
by an amount tAR, so you're left with a gain of AR(1-t).
It's like getting a Return of only R(1-t).
To see the effect on your Portfolio, just replace
R by R(1 - t) in the formula (1), above.
and Mortgages?
If you get a $B mortgage, then, after N months,
the balance owing is given by formula (1), with inflation
I = 0 (since your monthly payments don't change with inflation),
so y = 1 + I = 1 and we get a balance of
(4)  
BxN - P(xN -1)/(x - 1)
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after N months and N monthly payments.
Of course, x = 1 + R, as usual, but now R is the
monthly interest rate!
It's given by the magic formula
R = (1 + Q/2)1/6 - 1
where Q is the annual mortgage rate.
If, after N months, your balance is zero (for example, after
240 months meaning 20 years), then
BxN - P(xN -1)/(x - 1) = 0
so we can find the monthly payments:
(5)  
P = BR/ (1 - (1 + R)-N)
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where we have put x = 1 + R ... cuz that's what x is!
and Annuities?
You can use magic formula (5) to determine what the annual payments would be
if you put up $B to get an N-year annuity (with annual interest
R). If you give yourself an annuity from your investment portfolio
then use R = your annual Rate of Return. If you buy an annuity from
company ABC, then use R = their interest rate (which is
likely to be about half of your Rate of Return).
In formula (5), you can also do it monthly: let N = number of months
and R = monthly Rate which is calculated differently than for mortgages.
If Q is the annual Rate, then the monthly Rate is:
(6)  
R = (1 + Q)1/12 - 1
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and now you take money OUT of your portfolio ...
If the withdrawal, say $P, is from an RRSP, then all
of P is taxable. That's the easy situation.
Aah, but suppose P is withdrawn from a portfolio which is OUTside
an RRSP. Then
your taxable income is just the portion of P which is a gain.
Suppose you buy an N-year annuity with a portfolio balance of,
say, $B.
Each year you withdraw $P (given by formula (5),
above).
The total of all N payments is NP.
If the total of all the
investments you made to this portfolio is $A, then your total
gain is NP - A and this is your total taxable income.
For an N-year annuity payout, the taxable income each year is
just 1/N of this, namely P - A/N.
Hence we get the following, for an annual annuity payment of $P:
A/N is not taxable and the rest, P - A/N,
is taxable.
Of course, if the gains are capital gains, you only pay taxes on 75%
of this taxable income.
Moral: keep track of your out-of-pocket investments to an OUTside-an-RRSP
portfolio (that's $A), because that's not taxable.
All the gains you made are taxable.
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