Remember when we talked about Drawdown?
>No!
We looked at the maximum stock price over the past umpteen years and compared it to the most recent price to see ...
>To see how much we would have lost. Yes, I remember now.
Well, that was a negative look at the past, so now we ...
>We take a positive look, right?
Yes. We now look at the minimum stock price over the past umpteen years and compare it to the most recent price to see ...
>To see how much we would have gained!
Stop interrupting!
If Max is the maximum and Min is the minimum price over the past umpteen years,
and P is the current price, we look at:
LOSS = 1 - P / Max
and
GAIN = P / Min - 1
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For example, if the price dropped from a maximum of $50 to the current price of $30, then LOSS = 1- 30/50 = 0.4 or a loss of 40%.
If, over the same time period, the price increased from a minimum of $20 to the current price of $30, then GAIN = 30/20 - 1 = 0.5 or a gain of 50%.
>I'll take the gain!
Pay attention.
There's a spreadsheet that looks at the daily prices over a 5-year period. It looks like this:
>I take it you just click on the picture to download the spreadsheet?
Yes, as usual. A measure of how good or bad the stock has been is the Ratio: Average Gain/Average Loss.
G/L Ratio = Average[P / Min - 1]
/
Average[1 - P / Max]
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>And if that's a big number, you buy the stock, right?
Of course! Everybody knows the future is a replica of the past!
Of course, you might also want to use this.
Here are a few G/L ratios (for the period June/03 to June/08):
DOW 7.0 |
Nasdaq 6.2 |
MSFT 3.2 |
GE 5.6 |
XOM 21.8 |
WMT 0.8 |
PFE 0.7 |
VZ 2.8 |
JNJ 5.9 |
C 1.7 |
KO 2.6 |
MRK 2.1 |
IBM 2.8 |
TSX 19.0 |
Brazil 30.4 |
Japan 6.7 |
U.K. 11.9 |
Australia 17.3 |
Shanghai 6.2 |
>Guess I'll buy the XOM.
Exxon-Mobil? Go right ahead ...
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