How long till you're broke? |
We have $B in our portfolio and it's earning an annual return
of R (for a 12.3% return, we put R = .123). At the end of each year we withdraw $P, increasing with inflation, which we assume is I (I = .03 means 3% annual inflation). We start with a portfolio worth B and we'll track the balance at the end of each year:
After 1 year our portfolio has grown to B(1+R),
and we withdraw P(1+I).
To avoid getting too messy, we'll let
By the end of the second year this portfolio has increased by a factor x = (1+R) to
There's a magic formula we can use here. It's
We jump ahead to the end of the Nth year.
Your portfolio is now:
Alas, that last withdrawal left us with a ZERO portfolio: So what's N, the number of years until our portfolio ran dry?
We suppose (to make life simpler) that we withdraw our first $P at the very start,
We also let z =
x/y = (1+R) / (1+I),
we can compute z = (1+R) / (1+I), hence N.
Here's a calculator to play with: ... and that's also what this spreadsheet does. Just RIGHT-CLICK here and Save Target or Save Link to download.
One more thing:
The Ratio B/P = (1 - Z-N) / (Z - 1) gives a
Magic Multiplier,
namely how large your portfolio should be compared to your desired annual withdrawal (the
withdrawals increasing with inflation). If you want your portfolio to last for thirty years,
you get the following:
For example, if you assume 4.0% inflation and 7.0% return on your investments - both
constant for thirty years after you begin withdrawals
(fat chance!) - then the Magic Multiplier
is
about 20, meaning that if you want $50,000 annually from your portfolio (increasing with
inflation) you should have
20 x $50,000 = $1,000,000 in your portfolio.
P.S. If you want the formula when the first withdrawal is after one year
(instead of immediately), then just replace B by
B + P in [!].
P.P.S. If I = 0 (no "inflation" ... we withdraw equal
amounts at the end of each year),
... ain't Math wunnerful?
|